Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 122.795890 141.327720 162.380363 188.205905 219.220565 255.503665 301.507427
2025-12-21 97.977714 121.026295 149.612469 188.159685 239.533661 306.737698 403.147429
2025-12-28 86.823416 113.261105 148.384599 199.509466 273.833197 380.919039 552.640254
2026-01-04 78.229859 106.579813 146.390045 208.114978 304.720205 456.191728 724.962250
2026-01-11 71.291452 100.704153 143.978949 214.818431 333.122956 533.349205 923.903830
2026-01-18 64.904294 94.501760 139.799430 217.495424 354.859283 603.887636 1134.263089
2026-01-25 59.136340 88.362679 134.637832 217.321033 371.113942 667.936276 1354.413305
2026-02-01 53.429858 81.571362 127.412143 212.203797 376.959131 712.889320 1549.726247
2026-02-08 48.553729 75.553222 120.661130 206.742302 380.817209 754.357052 1753.217456
2026-02-15 44.478024 70.422620 114.784141 201.920650 384.846929 796.957881 1977.840493
2026-02-22 43.450743 70.352684 117.754362 214.457079 427.831483 941.346788 2561.814551
2026-03-01 41.112458 67.732185 115.749622 216.683074 448.461099 1037.199132 3052.347711
2026-03-08 39.144972 65.680029 114.747813 221.243430 476.613300 1165.141663 3750.264224
2026-03-15 36.821400 62.758936 111.761237 221.126925 493.615074 1268.862515 4440.693082
2026-03-22 36.178049 62.909396 114.819329 234.947266 549.715292 1512.293680 5950.306562
2026-03-29 35.212901 62.336714 116.327378 245.456863 599.945612 1760.626014 7779.994807
2026-04-05 34.094101 61.347147 116.836541 253.659470 646.062361 2017.939222 10019.156229
2026-04-12 32.651154 59.571892 115.457247 256.938560 678.560999 2241.627573 12408.849795
2026-04-19 31.060801 57.357019 112.875741 256.724754 700.275068 2434.363444 14930.009843
2026-04-26 29.167604 54.364096 108.261503 250.457639 700.852978 2538.193770 16945.471702
2026-05-03 27.406329 51.519012 103.722925 243.776472 698.658452 2630.520167 19077.376748
2026-05-10 25.844481 48.984661 99.670347 237.884630 697.983530 2731.781291 21564.142853
2026-05-17 25.736672 49.562267 102.942237 253.216390 778.443264 3295.448321 31114.567295